With the clock ticking until the all-important Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 14:15 EST on October 31st, traders are quickly upping the ante and betting that the central bank will be funded forex
cutting rates on Halloween. Currently, Fed fund futures are pricing in a 98 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut to 4.50 percent and a 2 percent chance of no change, but funded forex and equity traders have been cautious amidst the completely divergent speculation that the LEGENDAFX could also show the markets some tough love by not cutting rates at all or cutting them by 50bp to put an end to any further easing. In fact, 30 percent of the economists polled by Bloomberg believe the bank will keep the benchmark lending rate at 4.75 percent. Many US Dollar pairs, including EUR/USD, are trading at extreme levels and a major event risk could trigger a sharp and sudden turn. Will this week’s LEGENDAFX rate decision do the trick?
EUR / AUD – I’m Not Blaming “Them”
Looks like my timing with EUR/AUD was still a bit early relative to the continued lukewarm selling that ensued since I posted on this idea. This was a possibility I accounted for, which is why I only went in with a probing trade as discussed in my previous post.
As of right now, I still believe that a long potential may exist relative to the price action on the Daily chart. It’s running right into the area of congestion I pointed out in my previous post. I still believe that near-term this area of congestion is acting as supoprt so until it’s clearly violated to the downside I won’t necessarily be changing my stance just yet. What I’m doing now is hanging back and watching for another opportunity to time my entry. If on the other hand the pair breaks definitively below the 1.5650 area I’ll stop being a Bull and start to reassess what trading opportunity, if any, exists at that point.
If you lose, don’t blame “them”.
If you take the time to read any trading forums or listen to many new traders who are losing, you will hear one concept over and over again. These traders all lost because of “them”. You know….the ones who make sure you are going to lose your next trade. Sometimes another group is responsible for their losses…those who go by the name of “they”. “They” knew where my stop was and moved the market down to hit it….I lost because “they” told me to buy just before the market went down….“They” don’t want me to win because when I win, “they” lose. However, ask a professional trader why their last trade was a losing trade and you might hear something different….”I” didn’t anticipate the trend changing when it did….”I” underestimated the influence of that news event…”I” moved my stop up to quickly to the breakeven level. Notice the difference? Professionals accept responsibility for everything that happens in their trading account, while many losing traders prefer to blame somebody else. From experience, I know that in order to move up to the next level of trading, you have to quit blaming others. You are the one who hit the buy or sell button and placed your stop where you did. “They” had nothing to do with it. If you find yourself continually blaming “them” for your losing trades, then you will never be motivated to improve your trading approach. After all, if you are not responsible for your losses, then there is nothing you can do to change that around. But if you are honest with yourself and accept responsibility for your own actions, you will have the strength to change your approach and start to become a real trader. Don’t let your ego get in the way of becoming a successful trader. If you lose, don’t blame “them”.
